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هل نحن مهددون بفقاعة عقارية؟

By in مقالات with 1 Comment

أعزائنا  رواد موقع دلني, طرحنا في فيديو سابق مخاوف السوق العقاري  من حدوث ما يسمى “بالفقاعة العقارية ” في مصر و ناقشنا أسباب الاضطراب الذي حدث بالسوق المصري

-:وفي ما يلي فقد أبدي خبراء موقعنا  بعض التحليلات التي تهم رأي القراء

دعونا نرجع للمثال الأشهر و هو ما حدث في الولايات المتحدة منذ سنوات. كلمة السر كانت “بنوك التمويل العقاري” وهو ما أتاح للكثير من المواطنين الحصول على بيت العمر عن طريق الاقتراض, و هنا تكمن المشكلة. لم يستطع هؤلاء من تسديد الفوائد المرتفعة مع مرور الوقت, فما كان منهم غير عرضه للبيع, و من هنا زاد  لعرض بطريقة جنونية. و عندما يكون العرض أضعاف الطلب تنفجر الأزمة

أما في بعض الدول فيكون الخوف من استمرار بعض الحكومات في طرح الأراضي و الوحدات بكمية تفوق الطلب و تعامل بعض المسئولين مع الطرحات كبيزنس أو  سبوبة

أين تكمن المشكلة ؟ من المتأكد أن مصر تعاني من نقص الوحدات العقارية للاسكان الاجتماعى واسكان الشباب. و قد ادخر المسئولون مجهودا كبيرا خلال السنوات الماضية لتوفير عدد وحدات كبير. و لكن عندما تبدأ الحكومة بتوفير الاسكان فوق المتوسط والإسكان الفاخر الذي يمثل 10% من إجمالي الطلب المحلي تبدأ ظهور علامات لفقاعة وهو ما لم نلحظه حتى الآن

لماذا تؤثر هذه الطبقة ببساطة على حالة السوق؟ الاجابة هي الكلمة السحرية “القوة الشرائية” والتي تتمثل على قدرة هذة الطبقة في ضخ السيولة للسوق العقاري.

ما هي بوادر ما يسمى بـ الفقاعة العقارية؟

الانخفاض المفاجئ  في أسعار الوحدات وهو ما لم نلحظه حتى الآن

أسباب انفجار الفقاعة

ببساطة عندما يتفوق العرض على الطلب بشراسة

 :حالة السوق الأن

دعونا نستعرض الطلب المحلي الكبير في مصر, فنجد العديد من المستثمرين العرب و الأجانب يفضلون مصر كبلد ناشئ ذو طلب محلي كبير و أرض خصبة لاستثماراتهم وهو ما يدعو للاطمئنان. فكل هؤلاء المستثمرين يرجعون لشركات كبيرة مهمتها تحليل الأسواق واتخاذ القرارات المناسبة لعملائهم. وبالتالي فينتاب كل خبرائنا احساس بالاطمئنان لحالة السوق للسنوات القادمة

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هل نحن مهددون بفقاعة عقارية؟

By in Articles with 78 Comments

هل نحن مهددون بفقاعة عقارية؟

أعزائنا  رواد موقع دلني, طرحنا في فيديو سابق مخاوف السوق العقاري  من حدوث ما يسمى “بالفقاعة العقارية ” في مصر و ناقشنا أسباب الاضطراب الذي حدث بالسوق المصري

-:وفي ما يلي فقد أبدي خبراء موقعنا  بعض التحليلات التي تهم رأي القراء

دعونا نرجع للمثال الأشهر و هو ما حدث في الولايات المتحدة منذ سنوات. كلمة السر كانت “بنوك التمويل العقاري” وهو ما أتاح للكثير من المواطنين الحصول على بيت العمر عن طريق الاقتراض, و هنا تكمن المشكلة. لم يستطع هؤلاء من تسديد الفوائد المرتفعة مع مرور الوقت, فما كان منهم غير عرضه للبيع, و من هنا زاد  لعرض بطريقة جنونية. و عندما يكون العرض أضعاف الطلب تنفجر الأزمة

أما في بعض الدول فيكون الخوف من استمرار بعض الحكومات في طرح الأراضي و الوحدات بكمية تفوق الطلب و تعامل بعض المسئولين مع الطرحات كبيزنس أو  سبوبة

أين تكمن المشكلة ؟ من المتأكد أن مصر تعاني من نقص الوحدات العقارية للاسكان الاجتماعى واسكان الشباب. و قد ادخر المسئولون مجهودا كبيرا خلال السنوات الماضية لتوفير عدد وحدات كبير. و لكن عندما تبدأ الحكومة بتوفير الاسكان فوق المتوسط والإسكان الفاخر الذي يمثل 10% من إجمالي الطلب المحلي تبدأ ظهور علامات لفقاعة وهو ما لم نلحظه حتى الآن

لماذا تؤثر هذه الطبقة ببساطة على حالة السوق؟ الاجابة هي الكلمة السحرية “القوة الشرائية” والتي تتمثل على قدرة هذة الطبقة في ضخ السيولة للسوق العقاري.

ما هي بوادر ما يسمى بـ الفقاعة العقارية؟

الانخفاض المفاجئ  في أسعار الوحدات وهو ما لم نلحظه حتى الآن

أسباب انفجار الفقاعة

ببساطة عندما يتفوق العرض على الطلب بشراسة

 :حالة السوق الأن

دعونا نستعرض الطلب المحلي الكبير في مصر, فنجد العديد من المستثمرين العرب و الأجانب يفضلون مصر كبلد ناشئ ذو طلب محلي كبير و أرض خصبة لاستثماراتهم وهو ما يدعو للاطمئنان. فكل هؤلاء المستثمرين يرجعون لشركات كبيرة مهمتها تحليل الأسواق واتخاذ القرارات المناسبة لعملائهم. وبالتالي فينتاب كل خبرائنا احساس بالاطمئنان لحالة السوق للسنوات القادمة

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